Lean score (−100 far left to +100 far right; 0 = centre) reflects how this article frames the issue — language emphasis and narrative tilt — not a verdict on truth. Data-first pieces with balanced sources trend toward centre. Disclosed for transparency; not a ranking of correctness.
Lean score (−100 far left to +100 far right; 0 = centre) reflects how this article frames the issue — language emphasis and narrative tilt — not a verdict on truth. Data-first pieces with balanced sources trend toward centre. Disclosed for transparency; not a ranking of correctness.
Produce section of a grocery store (illustrative). Photo: Alabama Extension, CC0
Food-at-home inflation dominated kitchen-table politics from 2021 through 2023. By 2024–2025, year-over-year food CPI in Canada (StatsCan), the United States (BLS CPI), and the euro area (Eurostat HICP food) had slowed sharply from double-digit peaks — yet the level of prices remained much higher than pre-pandemic.
Cumulative increases matter more than the latest monthly print for household budgets. A 3% food inflation rate after a 20% cumulative rise is not a return to 2019 purchasing power.
Disinflation is not deflation. The bill can stop rising fast and still feel permanently higher.
Method: Compare food-at-home / food & non-alcoholic beverages indices rebased to 2019=100 across StatsCan, BLS, and Eurostat — not grocery-chain flyer anecdotes.
Competition-bureau and antitrust reviews in several countries examine concentration; separating global commodity shocks from domestic margin behaviour requires the microdata those agencies cite — not vibes.
Eurostat’s 4 November flash estimate puts euro-area annual HICP at 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September. Energy is expected at 20.8% (18.9% in September); the monthly rate is 0.4%. Full October data are due 18 November. Separately, Statistics Netherlands’ flash puts Dutch CPI at 3.7% and Dutch HICP at 3.3%.
On 28 October the Bank lifted the overnight rate target by a quarter point to 2.5% (Bank Rate 2.75%, deposit rate 2.45%). It now expects CPI inflation to reach about 3½% by year-end and average 3% in 2027, a point higher than in July, and says it “could” need to raise rates again. Next decision: 9 December.
Statistics Canada (19 October): the Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% year over year in September, up from 3.0% in August, led by gasoline (+27.8%). Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2%. Prices for food from stores rose 1.7%, the smallest increase since May 2024, but are still 33.0% higher than in September 2020. Fuel oil rose 57.8%. The next release is 16 November.
