Statistics Canada’s The Daily for 19 October 2026 reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% in the 12 months to September, after a 3.0% rise in August. Gasoline led the acceleration: +27.8% year over year in September, up from +22.8% in August. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2%, down from 2.4%.

Month over month, the CPI rose 0.1%. On a seasonally adjusted basis it rose 0.4%.

Groceries rose 1.7% in a year, the smallest increase since May 2024. StatCan adds that grocery prices are still 33.0% higher than in September 2020.

Energy: the driver

  • Energy prices rose 19.0% year over year, after 15.4% in August. StatCan points to crude prices reaching their highest level since May “amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East.”
  • Gasoline rose +27.8%. The switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel moderated the increase.
  • Fuel oil and other fuels rose +57.8%, after +43.7%. StatCan says this hit Atlantic Canada harder, where fuel oil is more widely used.
  • Transportation prices overall rose 8.4%.

Groceries: slower, not cheaper

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 1.7% after 2.8% in August. It was the second month in a row that grocery inflation ran below the all-items rate. Fresh vegetables (−2.9%) and sugar and confectionery (−2.7%) fell. Fresh or frozen beef rose +8.7%, slower than August’s +11.0%. StatCan notes that grocery prices are up 33.0% since September 2020.

Shelter, rent and tuition

Shelter prices rose 1.8% (August: 1.5%). Higher fuel oil costs and homeowners’ insurance (+4.9%) drove the increase. Rent rose 2.8%, the same as in August, with the fastest provincial rent increases in Atlantic Canada. The mortgage interest cost index fell 0.2%. Tuition fees, priced each September, rose 2.4% in 2026. In Ontario they rose 2.1%, the largest increase since 2018, after the province ended its tuition freeze.

Excluding energy, prices rose 2.1% nationally. Inflation excluding energy was higher in Nova Scotia (+3.3%), Prince Edward Island (+2.6%), New Brunswick (+2.6%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2.4%).

Citizen impact: The pain in this release is at the pump and in the oil tank, not the grocery aisle. Drivers are paying more than a quarter more for gasoline than a year ago. Atlantic households that heat with oil face fuel prices up more than half. Grocery inflation has slowed below the headline rate for two months running, but nothing is getting cheaper overall. The bill is still a third higher than five years ago. Who pays: commuters, rural drivers, truckers and oil-heated homes. Renters see steady 2.8% increases. Ontario students pay the largest tuition increase since 2018.

What this piece refuses

Do not write that “groceries are getting cheaper.” Store-food prices still rose 1.7%, and only some categories, such as fresh vegetables and sugar, fell. Do not present the 2.2% ex-gasoline figure as “the” inflation rate. The official all-items rate is 3.1%. Do not attribute the gasoline increase to any single tax or policy. StatCan cites crude oil prices and the Middle East wars.

Bottom line

Verified from Statistics Canada’s 19 October release: CPI +3.1% (gasoline +27.8%, energy +19.0%, fuel oil +57.8%). Groceries +1.7%, the slowest since May 2024 but +33.0% over five years. Rent +2.8%. The October CPI is due 16 November 2026.