On Tuesday 4 November 2026, Eurostat published its flash estimate for October 2026 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The statistical office of the European Union says euro-area annual inflation is expected to be 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September.

What Eurostat put on the page

  • All-items annual rate: 4.0% (flash, marked “e” in the table), after 3.8% in September.
  • Month-on-month: 0.4%.
  • Energy: highest main component, expected at 20.8% annual (18.9% in September).
  • Services: 3.3% (3.2% in September).
  • Food, alcohol & tobacco: 1.6% (1.3% in September).
  • Non-energy industrial goods: 1.2% (1.1% in September).
  • Core (all-items excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco): 2.5% annual (same as September’s 2.5% in the flash table).

Eurostat schedules the next release with full October 2026 data for 18 November 2026. From 1 January 2026 the euro-area aggregate includes Bulgaria (EA21); series through December 2025 are EA20.

“Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.”

Netherlands flash (CBS) — same morning, different yardstick

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) released its snelle raming the same morning (published 4 November 06:30). On the national Consumer Price Index, Dutch inflation is estimated at 3.7% in October (3.4% in September), with prices up 0.7% month-on-month. CBS’s flash for the Dutch HICP (the EU-harmonised measure that feeds into Eurostat’s country contributions) is 3.3% (3.0% in September). Energy including motor fuels is estimated at 14.4% annual on the CPI flash table. CBS says regular (more complete) October CPI figures are due 10 November, and that the flash uses still-incomplete source data.

Citizen impact: A 4.0% euro-area flash, with energy near 21%, is the cost-of-living number finance ministries and the ECB watch between full releases. Households feel it first at the pump and in heating; services and food components are also ticking up on Eurostat’s page. In the Netherlands the national CPI flash (3.7%) runs hotter than the Dutch HICP flash (3.3%) — useful context when comparing Dutch grocery and energy bills to the euro-area headline.

What this piece does not say

We do not treat the flash as final country detail: Eurostat’s full October package is still scheduled for 18 November, and CBS’s regular CPI is due 10 November. We do not forecast the ECB’s next rate decision from this page alone. We do not merge the Dutch national CPI into the euro-area HICP as if they were the same index.

Bottom line

Eurostat’s October flash: euro-area annual inflation expected at 4.0%, energy 20.8%, monthly 0.4%, core ex energy/food/alcohol/tobacco 2.5%; full data 18 November. CBS the same day: Dutch CPI flash 3.7%, Dutch HICP flash 3.3%.